Sportsbook accuracy report · last 30 days

Which sportsbook prices player props best?

We take every book's closing price on every player prop, remove the vig, and check it against the real box score — and against the other books on the exact same line. It takes every prop graded across 20+ books, which is why almost nobody publishes it.

Sharpest

BetRivers

+4.1 vs the market on 1,487 props

Smallest cut (sportsbooks)

Pinnacle

6.5% average margin on props

Scored

548,304

closing prop prices across 23 books

All books

Sharpness = how much closer the book's number was to what happened than the average of the other books on the same line (basis points of Brier score; higher is better). Only Kalshi beats the market average by a clear margin. Margin = the book's cut on those lines.

#	Book	Sharpness	95% range	Verdict	Margin	Props
1	BetRivers	+4.1	-4.7 to +12.9	In line	7.5%	1,487
2	Kalshi	+3.2	+1.5 to +5.0	Beats market	3.2%	61,983
3	Unibet	+2.9	-16.1 to +21.8	In line	8.1%	726
4	Sportzino	+2.6	-3.0 to +8.1	In line	8.2%	3,931
5	Fanatics	+0.9	-1.0 to +2.9	In line	7.8%	34,696
6	Fliff	-0.5	-2.9 to +2.0	In line	10.7%	10,662
7	Hard Rock Bet	-2.0	-3.1 to -0.9	Trails market	7.2%	92,329
8	Smarkets	-2.2	-5.0 to +0.7	In line	8.4%	24,630
9	1xBet	-2.4	-6.0 to +1.3	In line	7.2%	17,579
10	Bovada	-2.8	-5.3 to -0.3	Trails market	6.8%	18,217
11	BetMGM	-3.4	-5.2 to -1.6	Trails market	7.0%	37,677
12	Pinnacle	-3.7	-5.8 to -1.6	Trails market	6.5%	15,728
13	ProphetX	-3.8	-5.9 to -1.7	Trails market	7.7%	49,153
14	ReBet	-4.4	-7.6 to -1.1	Trails market	9.0%	10,238
15	DraftKings	-4.5	-5.8 to -3.2	Trails market	7.2%	51,643
16	Courtside	-5.4	-8.5 to -2.3	Trails market	6.7%	17,433
17	Novig	-5.9	-8.3 to -3.4	Trails market	6.9%	34,371
18	Betway	-5.9	-16.9 to +5.2	In line	7.5%	1,864
19	Polymarket US	-6.8	-8.6 to -5.0	Trails market	4.5%	50,879
20	BetOnline.ag	-7.4	-13.1 to -1.7	Trails market	7.8%	3,102
21	LowVig.ag	-7.6	-13.3 to -1.8	Trails market	7.8%	3,102
22	FanDuel	-10.5	-17.7 to -3.3	Trails market	6.6%	6,127
23	BetUS	-14.7	-30.3 to +0.9	In line	7.8%	747

By sport

MLB

#	Book	Sharpness	95% range	Verdict	Margin	Props
1	Kalshi	+3.1	+1.3 to +5.0	Beats market	3.3%	55,264
2	Sportzino	+2.3	-6.8 to +11.4	In line	8.2%	917
3	Fanatics	+1.0	-1.0 to +2.9	In line	7.8%	33,932
4	ProphetX	-1.1	-3.3 to +1.1	In line	7.4%	38,041
5	1xBet	-1.8	-5.6 to +1.9	In line	7.1%	16,179
6	Smarkets	-2.1	-5.0 to +0.8	In line	8.4%	24,591
7	Hard Rock Bet	-2.2	-3.3 to -1.2	Trails market	7.2%	81,700
8	Novig	-2.9	-5.2 to -0.7	Trails market	5.9%	23,463
9	BetMGM	-3.8	-5.6 to -2.0	Trails market	7.0%	35,012
10	Fliff	-3.9	-7.1 to -0.8	Trails market	12.3%	3,479
11	Pinnacle	-4.3	-6.7 to -2.0	Trails market	6.9%	10,458
12	DraftKings	-5.1	-6.5 to -3.7	Trails market	7.3%	43,994
13	Bovada	-5.5	-8.4 to -2.6	Trails market	6.9%	9,980
14	ReBet	-5.6	-9.3 to -1.9	Trails market	8.9%	7,211
15	Polymarket US	-7.1	-9.0 to -5.2	Trails market	4.8%	46,173
16	Courtside	-7.2	-10.5 to -3.9	Trails market	6.9%	11,725
17	BetOnline.ag	-9.1	-15.7 to -2.5	Trails market	8.3%	2,307
18	LowVig.ag	-9.1	-15.7 to -2.5	Trails market	8.3%	2,307
19	BetUS	-14.7	-30.3 to +0.9	In line	7.8%	747
20	FanDuel	-32.1	-51.0 to -13.1	Trails market	6.6%	916

NFL

#	Book	Sharpness	95% range	Verdict	Margin	Props
1	Hard Rock Bet	+3.5	-2.3 to +9.3	In line	7.6%	7,026
2	BetRivers	+3.4	-5.8 to +12.7	In line	7.3%	1,216
3	BetMGM	+3.3	-4.4 to +11.0	In line	7.0%	2,577
4	Bovada	+1.7	-3.7 to +7.2	In line	6.8%	5,284
5	Fliff	+1.4	-3.1 to +5.9	In line	9.8%	3,716
6	Kalshi	-0.5	-5.0 to +4.1	In line	1.7%	6,414
7	DraftKings	-1.0	-5.2 to +3.1	In line	6.3%	3,863
8	ReBet	-1.0	-10.1 to +8.2	In line	11.0%	609
9	Courtside	-1.2	-9.4 to +7.0	In line	5.8%	4,004
10	Sportzino	-1.2	-18.3 to +15.9	In line	9.5%	701
11	Fanatics	-1.5	-15.5 to +12.5	In line	7.0%	687
12	BetOnline.ag	-3.0	-16.8 to +10.7	In line	6.4%	543
13	FanDuel	-3.2	-16.3 to +9.8	In line	6.5%	1,977
14	LowVig.ag	-4.0	-17.8 to +9.7	In line	6.4%	543
15	Polymarket US	-4.0	-9.9 to +1.9	In line	1.2%	4,706
16	Pinnacle	-4.5	-9.8 to +0.8	In line	4.8%	2,641
17	Betway	-5.9	-16.9 to +5.2	In line	7.5%	1,864
18	ProphetX	-12.0	-19.3 to -4.8	Trails market	8.7%	7,242
19	Novig	-15.3	-23.1 to -7.4	Trails market	9.4%	7,495

NHL

#	Book	Sharpness	95% range	Verdict	Margin	Props
1	ReBet	+5.9	-4.1 to +15.8	In line	9.3%	871
2	Bovada	+4.4	-10.4 to +19.3	In line	6.1%	595
3	Pinnacle	+2.6	-5.0 to +10.2	In line	7.1%	1,739
4	Unibet	+0.5	-21.3 to +22.3	In line	8.2%	625
5	DraftKings	+0.4	-6.2 to +7.0	In line	7.4%	2,189
6	Sportzino	+0.4	-7.2 to +8.1	In line	7.1%	1,885
7	Fliff	-0.3	-5.3 to +4.7	In line	9.8%	2,469
8	Novig	-1.8	-9.4 to +5.8	In line	8.7%	2,039
9	Courtside	-7.4	-19.2 to +4.4	In line	7.4%	829
10	Hard Rock Bet	-9.1	-17.5 to -0.7	Trails market	7.6%	2,781
11	FanDuel	-38.3	-71.5 to -5.1	Trails market	6.5%	447

WNBA

#	Book	Sharpness	95% range	Verdict	Margin	Props
1	Kalshi	+96.6	+26.2 to +167.0	Beats market	6.1%	305
2	Courtside	+3.0	-14.5 to +20.5	In line	7.4%	763
3	FanDuel	-2.4	-18.0 to +13.2	In line	6.9%	1,478
4	DraftKings	-3.8	-13.9 to +6.4	In line	7.7%	1,499
5	ReBet	-3.9	-18.2 to +10.4	In line	7.8%	1,125
6	Bovada	-4.9	-15.7 to +5.9	In line	6.6%	1,443
7	1xBet	-8.4	-23.4 to +6.5	In line	8.4%	1,400
8	Fliff	-10.3	-21.2 to +0.7	In line	9.9%	336
9	Novig	-10.8	-26.7 to +5.1	In line	7.3%	1,374
10	ProphetX	-20.8	-34.3 to -7.3	Trails market	9.1%	1,961

College football

#	Book	Sharpness	95% range	Verdict	Margin	Props
1	Sportzino	+18.7	+1.1 to +36.2	Beats market	10.7%	428
2	Fliff	+12.1	-4.3 to +28.5	In line	11.6%	662
3	BetOnline.ag	-1.1	-21.4 to +19.2	In line	6.4%	252
4	LowVig.ag	-1.1	-21.4 to +19.2	In line	6.4%	252
5	Bovada	-2.1	-11.7 to +7.6	In line	6.9%	915
6	Hard Rock Bet	-4.6	-27.1 to +18.0	In line	6.8%	719
7	Pinnacle	-5.5	-16.7 to +5.7	In line	6.1%	811
8	FanDuel	-6.0	-18.0 to +6.0	In line	6.6%	1,309
9	ProphetX	-8.4	-22.5 to +5.7	In line	7.8%	1,712
10	ReBet	-10.9	-25.1 to +3.4	In line	11.0%	422

Sharpest book by market

Hits runs rbis

Kalshi

+3.9 · 15 books

Total bases

Kalshi

+1.3 · 16 books

Hits

ProphetX

+3.3 · 13 books

Rbis

Sportzino

+17.6 · 12 books

Singles

Fanatics

+3.7 · 7 books

Reception yards

Sportzino

+27.7 · 19 books

Runs

Sportzino

+18.1 · 7 books

Home runs

Novig

+0.9 · 5 books

How it works

Closing prices. For each book we use the last price it posted before the game started, on two-way Over/Under player props.

Same line, 3+ books. A line counts only when at least three books priced the same player, stat and number. That way every book is judged on the same bets, not on an easier mix.

Scored against the box score. We remove the vig, then score the Over probability against the official result (Brier score). Each book is compared with the average of the other books on that line. A book is marked “beats” or “trails” only when the 95% range is fully above or below zero.

Why most books trail. The average of many books is a better forecaster than almost any single book, so beating it at all is rare. Read the ranking, not just the sign.

Left out. DFS pick'em apps (their prices aren't real two-way odds). Exchange margins (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX) don't include their separate trading fees. This is a pricing report, not a betting-profit claim.

Check our work. Every number here comes from GET /v1/books/accuracy, free on every plan.

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Live odds from every book above, graded results, and closing lines — one API.

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