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Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, SX Bet, Sportzino, Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, YouWager, Thrillzz, Novig, ProphetX next to the sportsbooks on every game in the next 7 days. We remove the vig from both sides and show where they disagree most.
Games compared
119
Average gap
0.3 pts
win chance, exchanges vs books
Biggest gap
2.8 pts
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers
Biggest disagreements right now
Each row names the team the exchanges like more than the sportsbooks do. Percentages are no-vig win chances (moneyline). Sportsbooks = the average of 3+ books on that game.
| Game | Team | Exchanges | Sportsbooks | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers NBA · Wed, Oct 7, 7:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket | Minnesota Timberwolves | 57.0% | 54.2% | +2.8 |
| Lille @ Arsenal Champions League · Tue, Oct 13, 3:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Arsenal | 76.8% | 75.0% | +1.8 |
| Maryland @ Ohio St. College football · Sat, Oct 10, 4:15 PM EDT · Polymarket | Ohio St. | 99.0% | 97.4% | +1.6 |
| South Carolina @ Florida College football · Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Florida | 81.0% | 79.7% | +1.3 |
| Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators NHL · Thu, Oct 8, 7:10 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Ottawa Senators | 53.9% | 52.7% | +1.2 |
| Hawai'i @ Arizona St. College football · Sat, Oct 10, 9:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, YouWager | Arizona St. | 91.1% | 90.2% | +0.8 |
| Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls NBA · Wed, Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Thrillzz | Chicago Bulls | 44.8% | 44.0% | +0.8 |
| New York City @ Chicago Fire MLS · Sat, Oct 10, 2:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, Thrillzz | New York City | 49.6% | 48.8% | +0.8 |
| Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries WNBA · Wed, Oct 7, 9:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, ProphetX, SX Bet, YouWager | Golden State Valkyries | 52.9% | 52.2% | +0.7 |
| Bournemouth @ Chelsea Premier League · Sat, Oct 10, 10:00 AM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Chelsea | 56.5% | 55.8% | +0.7 |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees MLB · Wed, Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | New York Yankees | 59.8% | 59.1% | +0.7 |
| Portland Timbers @ Kansas City MLS · Sat, Oct 10, 8:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Kansas City | 39.8% | 39.3% | +0.6 |
| San Jose Earthquakes @ Colorado MLS · Sat, Oct 10, 9:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | San Jose Earthquakes | 51.2% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Tottenham @ Man Utd Premier League · Sat, Oct 10, 12:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet | Man Utd | 56.1% | 55.6% | +0.5 |
| New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream WNBA · Wed, Oct 7, 7:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, YouWager | New York Liberty | 47.5% | 47.0% | +0.5 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps @ Los Angeles FC MLS · Sat, Oct 10, 10:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Vancouver Whitecaps | 66.2% | 65.7% | +0.5 |
| Leeds @ Arsenal Premier League · Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 AM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Arsenal | 69.5% | 69.0% | +0.5 |
| James Madison @ Georgia Southern College football · Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | James Madison | 73.6% | 73.1% | +0.5 |
| Air Force @ Northern Illinois College football · Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Northern Illinois | 27.0% | 26.6% | +0.5 |
| Columbus Crew @ Orlando City MLS · Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Orlando City | 46.0% | 45.6% | +0.5 |
| Tulsa @ Navy College football · Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Tulsa | 45.1% | 44.6% | +0.5 |
| Brighton @ Sunderland Premier League · Sat, Oct 10, 10:00 AM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Brighton | 68.1% | 67.7% | +0.4 |
| South Alabama @ Arkansas State College football · Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | South Alabama | 48.5% | 48.1% | +0.4 |
| Florida Panthers @ Los Angeles Kings NHL · Tue, Oct 6, 10:40 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Florida Panthers | 51.6% | 51.2% | +0.4 |
| DC Utd @ Inter Miami CF MLS · Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Inter Miami CF | 68.7% | 68.3% | +0.4 |
Who takes the smallest cut?
Average margin on these same moneylines. Exchange numbers don't include their separate trading fees.
Polymarket
0.0%
211 moneylines
ProphetX
1.3%
89 moneylines
Novig
1.8%
110 moneylines
Polymarket US
1.9%
146 moneylines
Kalshi
2.7%
236 moneylines
SX Bet
3.1%
107 moneylines
YouWager
3.8%
74 moneylines
Jazz Sports
4.6%
104 moneylines
Sportsbooks (average)
4.8%
1237 moneylines
Heritage Sports
5.0%
109 moneylines
Sportzino
8.8%
111 moneylines
Thrillzz
9.0%
111 moneylines
How to read this
A gap is not a free bet. Exchange prices come from an order book and can be thin, and books move at different speeds. This page shows where the two markets disagree, not who is right. For how often each book's price ends up closest to the result, see the sportsbook accuracy report.
Pregame moneylines only. Soccer includes the draw. A book counts only when both sides are quoted and its prices aren't a placeholder.
Build your own. Every price here comes from GET /v1/sports/{sport}/odds — one call returns every book and exchange on every game, player props included.
Exchanges and sportsbooks in one API
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Novig and ProphetX next to 20+ sportsbooks — with order-book size on exchange prices.